Theory of Change

Funders

Theory of Change for Funders

Stakeholders ✨:

Any individual or group of individuals who is in the position to allocate funding from the Collective to an initiative, project or set of projects tasked with delivering results towards the intent.

Citizens: Endorsement of proposed RetroFunding Missions and Algorithm selection for reward allocation.

Grants Council: Selection of projects to receive funding in each season in accordance to the Seasonal Intent.

Delegates: Vote to approve allocation of funding to initiatives such as Futarchy or the Grants Council.

Broader Optimism Collective: Participation in allocating funding to projects in experiments such as the Futarchy experiment.

Another group that benefits from this view, similar to the stakeholders above but that is not in charge of allocating funding, is the Milestones and Metrics Council in charge of evaluating the benefit generated to the Optimism Collective by any contributor.

How does the Strategic Intent translate for these Stakeholders?

🎯

We need to prepare the ecosystem to adopt Interop, targeting $250M/month in cross-chain asset transfers by end of Season 7. As of May 2025, Interop is still in testnet — funders must ensure that capital from the Collective drives systemic readiness, infra maturity, adoption potential, and ecosystem preparation.

⚠️ Risks to keep in mind:

There are multiple risks funders must be aware of as they select the intiatives and projects to fund based on the limitations of this intent.

1.Technical Delivery:

a.The Interop infra could be delayed or underperfom in production which can lead to projects stalling. Funding projects that take a modular approach to building, have a multi-chain GTM strategy or demonstrate fallback options would be beneficial to the Collective.

2.Adoption Risk:

a.OP Chains may choose not to adopt or prioritize the deployment/usage of Interop. Additionally, teams building on those chains may choose not to leverage it in their builds. Funding that prioritizes ecosystem partnerships, engagement from protocols active in multiple chains, and educational resources on how to build with Interop for end user benefits can reduce adoption risk.

3.Liquidity Activation Risk:

a.Insufficient incentives or market dynamics can lead to a lack of meaningful movement of assets across chains and failure of meeting $250M/month transacted. Identifying funding opportunities that both contribute to use-cases where Interop is beneficial AND ensuring there are liquidity programs to maintain the flow of funds should be considered.

4.Measurement + Attribution Risk:

a.Early-stage usage (testnet) doesn’t always translate into meaningful impact into production or long-term sustainability. It is desirable to identify and segment the type of rewards in stages based on how they contribute at each stage in the testing, adoption, and scaled usage of Interop. Where if later phases are considered more meaningful, more funds should be directed there.

5.Governance Coordination Risk:

a.The Collective has multiple Stakeholders enabled to fund initiatives if communication between these parts, and technical teams at the forefront of Interop is not streamlined confusion may arise leading to inconsistencies in funding priorities and redundancy of funded efforts. Encouraging and rewarding projects or initiatives from teams that help align actors can lead to a more efficient use of funds.

🏗️ An Actionable Theory of Change:

This SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) Theory of Change outlines the path from funding inputs to ecosystem-wide impact for Optimism Season 7’s Interoperability Intent It is designed to help funders, delegates, and evaluators align capital allocation with the Collective’s strategic goals: preparing for Interop production, enabling adoption across OP Chains, and achieving $250M/month in cross-chain asset transfers.

Each column in the table breaks down the logical steps needed to reach that goal, helping you identify where projects fit in, where gaps exist, and how to track progress throughout the Season.

Inputs	Activities	Outputs	Outcomes	Impacts
35–40M OP from Foundation, Governance Fund, and Retro Funding Public roadmaps from OP Labs & Foundation Missions framework (Retro, Foundation, Gov Fund) Measurement systems (OSO, Dev Advisory Board, Milestones and Metrics Council)	Fund Interop MVP on ≥3 testnet chains Support ERC-7683 & ERC-7802 standards Create dashboards for usage and readiness Fund liquidity/TLV growth & stablecoin campaigns Launch predictive grant methods (decision markets, OSO evals)	≥3 OP Chains running Interop MVP ≥100 ERC-7802 deployments on testnet ≥2 dashboards measuring ecosystem readiness Published impact tracking plans across Missions	Interop in production on ≥2 OP Chains ≥5 OP Chains reach Stage 1 (L2Beat) Verified measurement system active ≥3 public apps using Interop-native UX ≥$250M/month in cross-chain asset transfers (if Interop ships before end of S7)	A trust-minimized, production-ready Interoperable Superchain Liquidity and UX standardized across OP Chains Reduced reliance on core teams Coordinated decentralization across the Collective

📊 Impact Vectors for Funders

To evaluate whether funding is driving meaningful progress toward Season 7’s Interoperability Intent, we use three multi-dimensional impact vectors. These vectors balance technical, adoption, and economic indicators, making them harder to game and more aligned with ecosystem health. They serve as key signals for funders assessing project effectiveness, capital efficiency, and long-term alignment.

Impact Vector	Components	Why It’s Robust & Useful
1. Ecosystem Readiness Index	# of chains testing Interop # of standards-based contracts (ERC-7683/7802) % growth of Stage1 OP Chains based on L2Beat definition	Combines technical progress with ecosystem adoption; can't be gamed by single actors
2. Standards-Driven Activity Score	% of Mission-funded projects using open standards # of grants resulting in reusable Interop enabling-tooling # of unique dev teams adopting Interop per OP Chain	Encourages ecosystem-wide convergence, deters isolated custom infra
3. Measurable Liquidity Enablement	Pre-interop Superchain TVL growth (Stablecoin + Bridged Asset) $ moved during testnet Interop demos # of liquidity protocols upgraded for Interop	Ensures that even "gaming" with high volume boosts ecosystem liquidity and infrastructure maturity

⛳ Sources for a data-driven successful evaluation of funding strategies pursued during S7

⚪️Superchain: App / Contract Growth Dashboard ⚪️Superchain Fee Sources Dashboard ⚪️Superchain Health Dashboard